Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX) Stock Analysis
Score AValue · Grade C · Bullish
$121.86
$151.80
+24.6%
10/10
C
Value
Investment Thesis
Buena oportunidad: empresa de calidad con asimetria favorable a 3.9:1.
For New Investors
Puntuacion cuantitativa: alta
For Current Holders
Puntuacion cuantitativa: neutral
Buy if
- El precio cae 15-20% (mejora la asimetria)
- Se materializan catalizadores del escenario alcista
- Correccion general del mercado crea oportunidad
Sell if
- Ocurren detonantes del escenario bajista
- Metricas de calidad se deterioran (ROIC en declive)
- Surgen mejores alternativas
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $151.80 (+24.6%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$74.34
FCF DCF Model
$182.79
Blended Fair Value
$151.80
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF
Quality Analysis
72/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
9.9%
ROIC-WACC Spread
3.2%
D/E Ratio
1.1x
Current Ratio
1.4x
Interest Coverage
4x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROE bajo: 9.9% (necesita >12%, obtuvo 15/20 pts)
- Spread ROIC: 3.2pp (obtuvo 8/25 pts)
- Apalancamiento: D/E 1.1x (4/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$125.00
+2.6% Upside
14 analysts
Range: $125.00 — $125.00
Rating: none
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($121.86) is 20.8% above SMA 200 ($100.88). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 78/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.88:1
Expected Return
+14.4%
Bull Upside
+37.8%
Bear Downside
-9.7%
Excelente asimetria: ratio 3.88:1. El potencial alcista supera ampliamente el riesgo bajista.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of FMX?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX) is $151.80. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is FMX a buy, sell, or hold?
FMX currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Buena oportunidad: empresa de calidad con asimetria favorable a 3.9:1. Puntuacion cuantitativa: alta.
Is FMX a high-quality stock?
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. has a quality grade of C (72/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 9.9%, ROIC-WACC spread of 3.2%, and D/E ratio of 1.1x.
What type of stock is FMX?
FMX is classified as a "value" in our framework. P/E alto: 26.7x, Alto dividendo: 5.0%, Crecimiento maduro: 0.0%, Alta volatilidad de ingresos: 56.9% desv. est., FCF consistente: 3/3 anos positivo
What do Wall Street analysts say about FMX?
14 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $125.00 for FMX, representing +2.6% upside. Targets range from $125.00 to $125.00. The consensus recommendation is "none". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in FMX?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for FMX is 3.88:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excelente asimetria: ratio 3.88:1. El potencial alcista supera ampliamente el riesgo bajista. The expected return is +14.4%, with bull case upside of +37.8% and bear case downside of -9.7%.
What is the current trend for FMX?
FMX is in a bullish trend. Price ($121.86) is 20.8% above SMA 200 ($100.88). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 78/100.
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Last updated: May 20, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.