Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade B · Bullish
$126.19
$159.41
+26.3%
10/10
B
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 6.7:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $159.41 (+26.3%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$71.37
FCF DCF Model
$164.05
EV/EBITDA
$164.05
Blended Fair Value
$159.41
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
77/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
27.2%
ROIC-WACC Spread
4.3%
D/E Ratio
1.3x
Current Ratio
0.9x
Interest Coverage
12x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 4.3pp (got 11/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.3x (2/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.94 (9/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$123.00
-2.5% Upside
32 analysts
Range: $81.00 — $148.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($126.12) is 22.8% above SMA 200 ($102.70). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 66/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
6.65:1
Expected Return
+30.6%
Bull Upside
+66.5%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 6.65:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of TGT?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Target Corporation (TGT) is $159.41. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is TGT a buy, sell, or hold?
TGT currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 6.7:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is TGT a high-quality stock?
Target Corporation has a quality grade of B (77/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 27.2%, ROIC-WACC spread of 4.3%, and D/E ratio of 1.3x.
What type of stock is TGT?
TGT is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High dividend: 3.6%, Mature growth: -0.8%, Dividend paying: 3.6%, Strong ROE: 23.9%, Market-like beta: 1.01
What do Wall Street analysts say about TGT?
32 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $123.00 for TGT, representing -2.5% upside. Targets range from $81.00 to $148.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in TGT?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for TGT is 6.65:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 6.65:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +30.6%, with bull case upside of +66.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for TGT?
TGT is in a bullish trend. Price ($126.12) is 22.8% above SMA 200 ($102.70). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 66/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.