Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) Stock Analysis
Score BCompounder · Grade B · Bullish
$136.29
$81.73
-40.0%
8/10
B
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $81.73 (-40.0%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$204.44
FCF DCF Model
$54.09
EV/EBITDA
$87.71
Blended Fair Value
$81.73
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
81/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
15.7%
ROIC-WACC Spread
2.6%
D/E Ratio
0.9x
Current Ratio
0.9x
Interest Coverage
18x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 2.7pp (got 7/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.9x (10/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.93 (9/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$144.00
+5.7% Upside
21 analysts
Range: $130.00 — $154.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($136.54) is 12.3% above SMA 200 ($121.64). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 66/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.58:1
Expected Return
+4.5%
Bull Upside
+24.4%
Bear Downside
-15.4%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.58:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of JCI?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) is $81.73. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is JCI a buy, sell, or hold?
JCI currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 8/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is JCI a high-quality stock?
Johnson Controls International plc has a quality grade of B (81/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 15.7%, ROIC-WACC spread of 2.6%, and D/E ratio of 0.9x.
What type of stock is JCI?
JCI is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 41.8x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.1%, Mature growth: 6.0%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.39, Cyclical sector: Industrials
What do Wall Street analysts say about JCI?
21 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $144.00 for JCI, representing +5.7% upside. Targets range from $130.00 to $154.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in JCI?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for JCI is 1.58:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.58:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +4.5%, with bull case upside of +24.4% and bear case downside of -15.4%.
What is the current trend for JCI?
JCI is in a bullish trend. Price ($136.54) is 12.3% above SMA 200 ($121.64). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 66/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.