Bunge Global S.A. (BG) Stock Analysis
Score BValue · Grade D · Bullish
$121.78
$157.79
+29.6%
5/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Appears undervalued but quality concerns keep the score lower.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $157.79 (+29.6%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$151.90
FCF DCF Model
$158.31
Blended Fair Value
$157.79
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF
Quality Analysis
58/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-1.1%
D/E Ratio
1.0x
Current Ratio
1.6x
Interest Coverage
2x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -1.1pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.0x (5/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.0x (5/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$130.00
+6.8% Upside
9 analysts
Range: $117.00 — $150.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($121.78) is 19.0% above SMA 200 ($102.37). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.13:1
Expected Return
+12.1%
Bull Upside
+39.2%
Bear Downside
-12.5%
Excellent asymmetry: 3.13:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of BG?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Bunge Global S.A. (BG) is $157.79. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is BG a buy, sell, or hold?
BG currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 5/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is BG a high-quality stock?
Bunge Global S.A. has a quality grade of D (58/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 12.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of -1.1%, and D/E ratio of 1.0x.
What type of stock is BG?
BG is classified as a "value" in our framework. High P/E: 32.0x, High FCF Yield: 29.8%, Mature growth: -1.9%, High revenue volatility: 21.2% std dev, Dividend paying: 2.3%
What do Wall Street analysts say about BG?
9 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $130.00 for BG, representing +6.8% upside. Targets range from $117.00 to $150.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in BG?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for BG is 3.13:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 3.13:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +12.1%, with bull case upside of +39.2% and bear case downside of -12.5%.
What is the current trend for BG?
BG is in a bullish trend. Price ($121.78) is 19.0% above SMA 200 ($102.37). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.