Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) Stock Analysis
Score BReit · Grade B · Bearish
$128.78
$140.04
+8.7%
7/10
B
Reit
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading near modeled fair value. No strong quantitative signal.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
REIT Fair Value: $140.04 (+8.7%). FFO/share: $9.14, P/FFO: 14.1x vs sector avg 16.0x.
PEG-Based EPS
$146.28
FCF DCF Model
$130.68
Blended Fair Value
$140.04
Methods
REIT P/FFO Relative, REIT Dividend Discount
Quality Analysis
78/120 points
Investable (REIT)
Quality Flags
- REIT quality screen: FFO-based metrics used instead of standard ROE/ROIC/D/E
- FFO declining: -3.2%/yr
- No dividend data available
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$142.50
+10.7% Upside
24 analysts
Range: $120.00 — $158.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($128.41) is 1.9% below SMA 200 ($130.85). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 39/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.97:1
Expected Return
+15.3%
Bull Upside
+39.7%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 3.97:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MAA?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) is $140.04. This is calculated by blending REIT P/FFO Relative, REIT Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is moderate.
Is MAA a buy, sell, or hold?
MAA currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 7/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is MAA a high-quality stock?
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. has a quality grade of B (78/120 points), rated as Investable (REIT). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of —x.
What type of stock is MAA?
MAA is classified as a "reit" in our framework. REIT classification: Real Estate / REIT - Residential
What do Wall Street analysts say about MAA?
24 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $142.50 for MAA, representing +10.7% upside. Targets range from $120.00 to $158.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in MAA?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MAA is 3.97:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 3.97:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +15.3%, with bull case upside of +39.7% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MAA?
MAA is in a bearish trend. Price ($128.41) is 1.9% below SMA 200 ($130.85). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 39/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.