Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Stock Analysis
Score BCompounder · Grade A · Bullish
$241.99
$132.19
-45.4%
9/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $132.19 (-45.4%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$161.97
FCF DCF Model
$177.19
EV/EBITDA
$68.77
Blended Fair Value
$132.19
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
97/120 points
Investable (Early-Profit)
Quality Flags
- Early-Profit screen: P/E > 100 + Gross Margin > 50% — adapted metrics used
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$216.00
-10.7% Upside
50 analysts
Range: $157.00 — $275.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($242.48) is 30.1% above SMA 200 ($186.36). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 53/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
4.84:1
Expected Return
+25.1%
Bull Upside
+48.4%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 4.84:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PANW?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is $132.19. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is PANW a buy, sell, or hold?
PANW currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is PANW a high-quality stock?
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. has a quality grade of A (97/120 points), rated as Investable (Early-Profit). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of 0.0x.
What type of stock is PANW?
PANW is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 133.8x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Large cap: $164.9B, Moderate growth: 14.3%, Strong ROE: 15.5%
What do Wall Street analysts say about PANW?
50 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $216.00 for PANW, representing -10.7% upside. Targets range from $157.00 to $275.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PANW?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PANW is 4.84:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 4.84:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +25.1%, with bull case upside of +48.4% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PANW?
PANW is in a bullish trend. Price ($242.48) is 30.1% above SMA 200 ($186.36). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 53/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.