Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Analysis
Score BCompounder · Grade A · Bullish
$258.83
$193.85
-25.1%
10/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $193.85 (-25.1%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$74.26
FCF DCF Model
$174.19
EV/EBITDA
$201.71
Blended Fair Value
$193.85
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
98/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
157.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
44.1%
D/E Ratio
1.5x
Current Ratio
0.9x
Interest Coverage
99x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 1.5x (0/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.89 (8/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$325.00
+25.6% Upside
Range: $239.00 — $350.00
Analyst consensus data not available.
Trend & Technical
Price ($258.83) is 3.2% above SMA 200 ($250.89). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.91:1
Expected Return
+6.6%
Bull Upside
+23.4%
Bear Downside
-12.2%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.91:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
Ask AI about this stock
Chat with our AI analyst to ask questions about valuation, risks, or comparisons.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of AAPL?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Apple Inc. (AAPL) is $193.85. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is AAPL a buy, sell, or hold?
AAPL currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is AAPL a high-quality stock?
Apple Inc. has a quality grade of A (98/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 157.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of 44.1%, and D/E ratio of 1.5x.
What type of stock is AAPL?
AAPL is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 34.1x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.4%, Mature growth: 4.6%, High debt: D/E 1.5x, Large cap: $3804.3B
What do Wall Street analysts say about AAPL?
Multiple Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $325.00 for AAPL, representing +25.6% upside. Targets range from $239.00 to $350.00. The consensus recommendation is "—". Analyst consensus data not available.
What are the risks of investing in AAPL?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for AAPL is 1.91:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.91:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +6.6%, with bull case upside of +23.4% and bear case downside of -12.2%.
What is the current trend for AAPL?
AAPL is in a bullish trend. Price ($258.83) is 3.2% above SMA 200 ($250.89). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
Related Stock Analyses
Best Stocks to Buy
Compare Stocks
Get the complete analysis
Scenario targets, buy zones, action plan, executive summary, technical analysis, and AI chat. All free.
Last updated: April 15, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.