Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) Stock Analysis
Score BGrowth · Grade B · Unknown
$94.42
$67.66
-28.3%
9/10
B
Growth
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $67.66 (-28.3%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$17.29
FCF DCF Model
$61.15
EV/EBITDA
$82.73
Blended Fair Value
$67.66
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
84/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.6%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.8%
D/E Ratio
0.2x
Current Ratio
4.1x
Interest Coverage
15x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 12.6% (need >18%, got 11/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -0.8pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.2x (13/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$95.00
+0.6% Upside
Range: $77.00 — $116.00
Analyst consensus data not available.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+53.9%
Bull Upside
+104.7%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ATVI?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) is $67.66. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is ATVI a buy, sell, or hold?
ATVI currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is ATVI a high-quality stock?
Activision Blizzard, Inc. has a quality grade of B (84/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 12.6%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.8%, and D/E ratio of 0.2x.
What type of stock is ATVI?
ATVI is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High P/E: 39.6x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.1%, Mature growth: 4.6%, Dividend paying: 1.1%, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about ATVI?
Multiple Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $95.00 for ATVI, representing +0.6% upside. Targets range from $77.00 to $116.00. The consensus recommendation is "—". Analyst consensus data not available.
What are the risks of investing in ATVI?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ATVI is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +53.9%, with bull case upside of +104.7% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for ATVI?
ATVI is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.