MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Stock Analysis
Score BGrowth · Grade A · Bearish
$1,664.42
$3,157.47
+89.7%
10/10
A
Growth
Investment Thesis
Gran empresa, NO gran precio. La calidad justifica mantener pero la asimetria no es atractiva para nuevas posiciones.
No strong signal in either direction.
For New Investors
Precio por encima del rango de valor modelado
For Current Holders
Puntuacion cuantitativa: neutral
Buy if
- El precio cae 15-20% (mejora la asimetria)
- Se materializan catalizadores del escenario alcista
- Correccion general del mercado crea oportunidad
Sell if
- Ocurren detonantes del escenario bajista
- Metricas de calidad se deterioran (ROIC en declive)
- Surgen mejores alternativas
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $3157.47 (+89.7%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$3,302.66
FCF DCF Model
$4,993.26
EV/EBITDA
$2,095.57
Blended Fair Value
$3,157.47
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
102/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
35.2%
ROIC-WACC Spread
9.8%
D/E Ratio
1.7x
Current Ratio
1.2x
Interest Coverage
22x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Apalancamiento: D/E 1.7x (2/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$2,150.00
+29.2% Upside
25 analysts
Range: $1,750.00 — $2,600.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($1664.42) is 18.4% below SMA 200 ($2039.40). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 46/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
8.09:1
Expected Return
+57.4%
Bull Upside
+80.9%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excelente asimetria: ratio 8.09:1. El potencial alcista supera ampliamente el riesgo bajista.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MELI?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) is $3,157.47. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is MELI a buy, sell, or hold?
MELI currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Gran empresa, NO gran precio. La calidad justifica mantener pero la asimetria no es atractiva para nuevas posiciones. Precio por encima del rango de valor modelado.
Is MELI a high-quality stock?
MercadoLibre, Inc. has a quality grade of A (102/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 35.2%, ROIC-WACC spread of 9.8%, and D/E ratio of 1.7x.
What type of stock is MELI?
MELI is classified as a "growth" in our framework. Alto crecimiento de ingresos: 38.6%, P/E alto: 43.9x, Dividendo bajo (reinvierte): 0.0%, Alto rendimiento FCF: 12.8%, Alta deuda: D/E 1.7x
What do Wall Street analysts say about MELI?
25 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $2,150.00 for MELI, representing +29.2% upside. Targets range from $1,750.00 to $2,600.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in MELI?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MELI is 8.09:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excelente asimetria: ratio 8.09:1. El potencial alcista supera ampliamente el riesgo bajista. The expected return is +57.4%, with bull case upside of +80.9% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MELI?
MELI is in a bearish trend. Price ($1664.42) is 18.4% below SMA 200 ($2039.40). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 46/100.
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Last updated: May 25, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.