Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Analysis
Score CFinancial · Grade C · Bullish
$191.36
$147.20
-23.1%
6/10
C
Financial
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $147.20 (-23.1%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$157.03
FCF DCF Model
$148.26
Blended Fair Value
$147.20
Confidence
High
Methods
P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount
Quality Analysis
70/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-6.5%
D/E Ratio
4.3x
Current Ratio
1.2x
Interest Coverage
0x
FCF Positive Years
1/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Strong ROE: 12.4%
- Low profitability margins
- Earnings declining
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$203.50
+6.3% Upside
21 analysts
Range: $194.00 — $211.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($191.43) is 14.6% above SMA 200 ($167.06). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 78/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+74.9%
Bull Upside
+125.9%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
Ask AI about this stock
Chat with our AI analyst to ask questions about valuation, risks, or comparisons.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MS?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Morgan Stanley (MS) is $147.20. This is calculated by blending P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is MS a buy, sell, or hold?
MS currently has a WATCHLIST rating with a conviction score of 6/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is MS a high-quality stock?
Morgan Stanley has a quality grade of C (70/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 12.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of -6.5%, and D/E ratio of 4.3x.
What type of stock is MS?
MS is classified as a "financial" in our framework. Financial sector override: Financial Services
What do Wall Street analysts say about MS?
21 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $203.50 for MS, representing +6.3% upside. Targets range from $194.00 to $211.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in MS?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MS is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +74.9%, with bull case upside of +125.9% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MS?
MS is in a bullish trend. Price ($191.43) is 14.6% above SMA 200 ($167.06). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 78/100.
Related Stock Analyses
Compare Stocks
Get the complete analysis
Scenario targets, buy zones, action plan, executive summary, technical analysis, and AI chat. All free.
Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.