Aon plc (AON) Stock Analysis
Score BFinancial · Grade A · Bearish
$327.38
$285.35
-12.8%
10/10
A
Financial
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $285.35 (-12.8%). Approximately at fair value.
PEG-Based EPS
$185.87
FCF DCF Model
$281.84
Blended Fair Value
$285.35
Confidence
Medium
Methods
P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount
Quality Analysis
110/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
41.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
7.9%
D/E Ratio
1.8x
Current Ratio
1.1x
Interest Coverage
5x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Strong ROE: 41.4%
- Excellent efficiency
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$397.50
+21.4% Upside
19 analysts
Range: $381.00 — $443.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($327.38) is 4.2% below SMA 200 ($341.63). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 63/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+113.6%
Bull Upside
+164.6%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of AON?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Aon plc (AON) is $285.35. This is calculated by blending P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is AON a buy, sell, or hold?
AON currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is AON a high-quality stock?
Aon plc has a quality grade of A (110/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 41.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of 7.9%, and D/E ratio of 1.8x.
What type of stock is AON?
AON is classified as a "financial" in our framework. Financial sector override: Financial Services
What do Wall Street analysts say about AON?
19 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $397.50 for AON, representing +21.4% upside. Targets range from $381.00 to $443.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in AON?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for AON is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +113.6%, with bull case upside of +164.6% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for AON?
AON is in a bearish trend. Price ($327.38) is 4.2% below SMA 200 ($341.63). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 63/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.