Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Stock Analysis
Score AFinancial · Grade B · Unknown
$119.18
$97.76
-18.0%
8/10
B
Financial
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 2.5:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $97.76 (-18.0%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$97.09
FCF DCF Model
$88.26
Blended Fair Value
$97.76
Confidence
High
Methods
P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount
Quality Analysis
88/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
18.1%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-3.3%
D/E Ratio
0.3x
Current Ratio
2.0x
Interest Coverage
21x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Strong ROE: 18.1%
- Excellent efficiency
- Earnings declining
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$114.00
-4.3% Upside
14 analysts
Range: $99.00 — $120.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.45:1
Expected Return
+8.7%
Bull Upside
+26.8%
Bear Downside
-10.9%
Good asymmetry: 2.45:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
Ask AI about this stock
Chat with our AI analyst to ask questions about valuation, risks, or comparisons.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of AFL?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is $97.76. This is calculated by blending P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is AFL a buy, sell, or hold?
AFL currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 8/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 2.5:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is AFL a high-quality stock?
Aflac Incorporated has a quality grade of B (88/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 18.1%, ROIC-WACC spread of -3.3%, and D/E ratio of 0.3x.
What type of stock is AFL?
AFL is classified as a "financial" in our framework. Financial sector override: Financial Services
What do Wall Street analysts say about AFL?
14 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $114.00 for AFL, representing -4.3% upside. Targets range from $99.00 to $120.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in AFL?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for AFL is 2.45:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.45:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +8.7%, with bull case upside of +26.8% and bear case downside of -10.9%.
What is the current trend for AFL?
AFL is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
Related Stock Analyses
Best Stocks to Buy
Get the complete analysis
Scenario targets, buy zones, action plan, executive summary, technical analysis, and AI chat. All free.
Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.