Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Stock Analysis
Score AGrowth · Grade C · Bullish
$60.43
$78.55
+30.0%
10/10
C
Growth
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $78.55 (+30.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$78.55
FCF DCF Model
$78.55
EV/EBITDA
$78.55
Blended Fair Value
$78.55
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
66/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
10.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-2.8%
D/E Ratio
0.7x
Current Ratio
0.9x
Interest Coverage
4x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -2.7pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.7x (12/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.94 (9/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$60.00
-0.7% Upside
24 analysts
Range: $45.00 — $75.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($60.62) is 27.3% above SMA 200 ($47.62). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+53.8%
Bull Upside
+127.5%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of OXY?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is $78.55. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is OXY a buy, sell, or hold?
OXY currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is OXY a high-quality stock?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation has a quality grade of C (66/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 10.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of -2.8%, and D/E ratio of 0.7x.
What type of stock is OXY?
OXY is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High P/E: 81.9x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.6%, Mature growth: -17.3%, High revenue volatility: 28.7% std dev, Cyclical sector: Energy
What do Wall Street analysts say about OXY?
24 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $60.00 for OXY, representing -0.7% upside. Targets range from $45.00 to $75.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in OXY?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for OXY is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +53.8%, with bull case upside of +127.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for OXY?
OXY is in a bullish trend. Price ($60.62) is 27.3% above SMA 200 ($47.62). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.