$49.62
$64.43
+29.9%
10/10
B
Value
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 4.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $64.43 (+29.9%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$63.13
FCF DCF Model
$64.50
EV/EBITDA
$64.50
Blended Fair Value
$64.43
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
75/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
22.7%
ROIC-WACC Spread
2.0%
D/E Ratio
0.6x
Current Ratio
1.0x
Interest Coverage
7x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 2.0pp (got 5/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.6x (12/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$57.00
+14.9% Upside
25 analysts
Range: $42.00 — $72.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($49.58) is 26.5% above SMA 200 ($39.19). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.96:1
Expected Return
+19.1%
Bull Upside
+39.6%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 3.96:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of DVN?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is $64.43. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is DVN a buy, sell, or hold?
DVN currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 4.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is DVN a high-quality stock?
Devon Energy Corporation has a quality grade of B (75/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 22.7%, ROIC-WACC spread of 2.0%, and D/E ratio of 0.6x.
What type of stock is DVN?
DVN is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.9%, Low P/E: 13.8x, High FCF Yield: 10.1%, Mature growth: -3.6%, High revenue volatility: 27.9% std dev
What do Wall Street analysts say about DVN?
25 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $57.00 for DVN, representing +14.9% upside. Targets range from $42.00 to $72.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in DVN?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for DVN is 3.96:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 3.96:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +19.1%, with bull case upside of +39.6% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for DVN?
DVN is in a bullish trend. Price ($49.58) is 26.5% above SMA 200 ($39.19). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.