$53.16
$106.32
+100.0%
10/10
C
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 9.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $106.32 (+100.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$106.32
FCF DCF Model
$106.32
EV/EBITDA
$106.32
Blended Fair Value
$106.32
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
73/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
15.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-4.9%
D/E Ratio
0.9x
Current Ratio
1.7x
Interest Coverage
3x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -4.9pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.9x (8/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$97.00
+82.5% Upside
19 analysts
Range: $71.00 — $110.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($53.17) is 29.3% below SMA 200 ($75.21). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 29/100 — Very weak technicals. Multiple bearish signals active.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
9.00:1
Expected Return
+49.5%
Bull Upside
+90.1%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 9.00:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of APTV?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Aptiv PLC (APTV) is $106.32. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is APTV a buy, sell, or hold?
APTV currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 9.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is APTV a high-quality stock?
Aptiv PLC has a quality grade of C (73/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 15.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of -4.9%, and D/E ratio of 0.9x.
What type of stock is APTV?
APTV is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 31.6x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High FCF Yield: 13.6%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.31, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical
What do Wall Street analysts say about APTV?
19 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $97.00 for APTV, representing +82.5% upside. Targets range from $71.00 to $110.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in APTV?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for APTV is 9.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 9.00:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +49.5%, with bull case upside of +90.1% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for APTV?
APTV is in a bearish trend. Price ($53.17) is 29.3% below SMA 200 ($75.21). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 29/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.