$138.02
$96.95
-29.8%
6/10
B
Reit
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
REIT Fair Value: $96.95 (-29.8%). FFO/share: $6.43, P/FFO: 21.5x vs sector avg 16.0x.
PEG-Based EPS
$102.93
FCF DCF Model
$87.98
Blended Fair Value
$96.95
Methods
REIT P/FFO Relative, REIT Dividend Discount
Quality Analysis
85/120 points
Investable (REIT)
Quality Flags
- REIT quality screen: FFO-based metrics used instead of standard ROE/ROIC/D/E
- No dividend data available
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$135.00
-2.2% Upside
20 analysts
Range: $119.00 — $155.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($138.02) is 14.3% above SMA 200 ($120.80). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 85/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
3.44:1
Expected Return
+14.8%
Bull Upside
+34.4%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 3.44:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PLD?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Prologis, Inc. (PLD) is $96.95. This is calculated by blending REIT P/FFO Relative, REIT Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is moderate.
Is PLD a buy, sell, or hold?
PLD currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 6/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is PLD a high-quality stock?
Prologis, Inc. has a quality grade of B (85/120 points), rated as Investable (REIT). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of —x.
What type of stock is PLD?
PLD is classified as a "reit" in our framework. REIT classification: Real Estate / REIT - Industrial
What do Wall Street analysts say about PLD?
20 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $135.00 for PLD, representing -2.2% upside. Targets range from $119.00 to $155.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PLD?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PLD is 3.44:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 3.44:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +14.8%, with bull case upside of +34.4% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PLD?
PLD is in a bullish trend. Price ($138.02) is 14.3% above SMA 200 ($120.80). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 85/100.
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Last updated: April 10, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.