Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis
Score BCompounder · Grade A · Bullish
$303.53
$189.07
-37.7%
6/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $189.07 (-37.7%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$383.14
FCF DCF Model
$135.12
EV/EBITDA
$172.53
Blended Fair Value
$189.07
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
101/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
32.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
10.5%
D/E Ratio
0.9x
Current Ratio
4.3x
Interest Coverage
11x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 0.9x (6/15 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 5.3pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$278.00
-8.4% Upside
32 analysts
Range: $175.00 — $340.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($303.56) is 54.3% above SMA 200 ($196.79). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 68/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.37:1
Expected Return
+3.4%
Bull Upside
+20.2%
Bear Downside
-14.7%
Poor asymmetry: 1.37:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward.
Verdict: Unfavorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of TXN?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is $189.07. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is TXN a buy, sell, or hold?
TXN currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 6/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is TXN a high-quality stock?
Texas Instruments Incorporated has a quality grade of A (101/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 32.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of 10.5%, and D/E ratio of 0.9x.
What type of stock is TXN?
TXN is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 51.8x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.9%, Mature growth: -3.8%, Large cap: $276.2B, Dividend paying: 1.9%
What do Wall Street analysts say about TXN?
32 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $278.00 for TXN, representing -8.4% upside. Targets range from $175.00 to $340.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in TXN?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for TXN is 1.37:1, rated as Unfavorable. Poor asymmetry: 1.37:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward. The expected return is +3.4%, with bull case upside of +20.2% and bear case downside of -14.7%.
What is the current trend for TXN?
TXN is in a bullish trend. Price ($303.56) is 54.3% above SMA 200 ($196.79). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 68/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.