$52.95
$68.84
+30.0%
6/10
F
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $68.84 (+30.0%). Significantly undervalued. (Fair value adjusted: model estimate was outside reasonable range.)
FCF DCF Model
$68.84
Blended Fair Value
$68.84
Confidence
Low
Methods
FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround)
Quality Analysis
35/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-10.2%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-9.4%
D/E Ratio
3.2x
Current Ratio
1.6x
Interest Coverage
1x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -10.2% (need >12%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -9.4pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 3.2x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 1.0x (0/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$63.50
+19.9% Upside
16 analysts
Range: $50.00 — $86.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($53.05) is 8.4% above SMA 200 ($48.92). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 56/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+48.9%
Bull Upside
+122.8%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of CE?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Celanese Corporation (CE) is $68.84. This is calculated by blending FCF 2-Stage DCF (turnaround) and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is CE a buy, sell, or hold?
CE currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 6/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is CE a high-quality stock?
Celanese Corporation has a quality grade of F (35/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -10.2%, ROIC-WACC spread of -9.4%, and D/E ratio of 3.2x.
What type of stock is CE?
CE is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.2%, High FCF Yield: 13.8%, Mature growth: -0.8%, High debt: D/E 3.2x, Cyclical sector: Basic Materials
What do Wall Street analysts say about CE?
16 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $63.50 for CE, representing +19.9% upside. Targets range from $50.00 to $86.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in CE?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for CE is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +48.9%, with bull case upside of +122.8% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for CE?
CE is in a bullish trend. Price ($53.05) is 8.4% above SMA 200 ($48.92). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 56/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.