DaVita Inc. (DVA) Stock Analysis
Score BValue · Grade D · Bullish
$196.03
$235.25
+20.0%
7/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Appears undervalued but quality concerns keep the score lower.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $235.25 (+20.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$239.74
FCF DCF Model
$294.05
EV/EBITDA
$138.21
Blended Fair Value
$235.25
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
59/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
6.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-1.7%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
1.3x
Interest Coverage
4x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 6.4% (need >15%, got 3/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -1.7pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (11/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$199.50
+1.8% Upside
7 analysts
Range: $190.00 — $220.00
Rating: Hold
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($195.77) is 44.3% above SMA 200 ($135.68). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 80/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.65:1
Expected Return
+9.9%
Bull Upside
+37.1%
Bear Downside
-14.0%
Good asymmetry: 2.65:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of DVA?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of DaVita Inc. (DVA) is $235.25. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is DVA a buy, sell, or hold?
DVA currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 7/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is DVA a high-quality stock?
DaVita Inc. has a quality grade of D (59/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 6.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of -1.7%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is DVA?
DVA is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High FCF Yield: 10.4%, Mature growth: 8.3%, Moderate growth: 8.3%, Market-like beta: 0.84
What do Wall Street analysts say about DVA?
7 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $199.50 for DVA, representing +1.8% upside. Targets range from $190.00 to $220.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in DVA?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for DVA is 2.65:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.65:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +9.9%, with bull case upside of +37.1% and bear case downside of -14.0%.
What is the current trend for DVA?
DVA is in a bullish trend. Price ($195.77) is 44.3% above SMA 200 ($135.68). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 80/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.