Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Stock Analysis
Score A+Blue Chip · Grade A · Bullish
$235.37
$293.92
+24.9%
10/10
A
Blue Chip
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: High-quality company with very favorable risk/reward at 4.7:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $293.92 (+24.9%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$255.30
FCF DCF Model
$353.06
EV/EBITDA
$232.65
Blended Fair Value
$293.92
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
97/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
34.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
8.5%
D/E Ratio
0.6x
Current Ratio
1.0x
Interest Coverage
26x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 8.5pp (got 21/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.6x (11/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$220.00
-6.5% Upside
24 analysts
Range: $190.00 — $265.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($235.37) is 22.2% above SMA 200 ($192.67). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
4.68:1
Expected Return
+24.3%
Bull Upside
+46.8%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 4.68:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of JNJ?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is $293.92. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is JNJ a buy, sell, or hold?
JNJ currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: High-quality company with very favorable risk/reward at 4.7:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is JNJ a high-quality stock?
Johnson & Johnson has a quality grade of A (97/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 34.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of 8.5%, and D/E ratio of 0.6x.
What type of stock is JNJ?
JNJ is classified as a "blue_chip" in our framework. Mature growth: 8.2%, Large cap: $567.2B, Moderate growth: 8.2%, Dividend paying: 2.2%, High ROE (compounder): 33.8%
What do Wall Street analysts say about JNJ?
24 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $220.00 for JNJ, representing -6.5% upside. Targets range from $190.00 to $265.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in JNJ?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for JNJ is 4.68:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 4.68:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +24.3%, with bull case upside of +46.8% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for JNJ?
JNJ is in a bullish trend. Price ($235.37) is 22.2% above SMA 200 ($192.67). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: March 22, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.