Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade C · Unknown
$56.98
$103.15
+81.0%
10/10
C
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 8.4:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $103.15 (+81.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$113.96
FCF DCF Model
$113.96
EV/EBITDA
$90.18
Blended Fair Value
$103.15
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
63/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
8.6%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-2.0%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
1.4x
Interest Coverage
20x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 8.6% (need >15%, got 7/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -2.0pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (11/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$72.00
+26.4% Upside
25 analysts
Range: $55.00 — $85.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
8.39:1
Expected Return
+44.3%
Bull Upside
+83.9%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 8.39:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ETSY?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Etsy, Inc. (ETSY) is $103.15. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is ETSY a buy, sell, or hold?
ETSY currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 8.4:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is ETSY a high-quality stock?
Etsy, Inc. has a quality grade of C (63/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 8.6%, ROIC-WACC spread of -2.0%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is ETSY?
ETSY is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High FCF Yield: 11.8%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.90, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical, Moderate growth: 13.2%
What do Wall Street analysts say about ETSY?
25 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $72.00 for ETSY, representing +26.4% upside. Targets range from $55.00 to $85.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in ETSY?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ETSY is 8.39:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 8.39:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +44.3%, with bull case upside of +83.9% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for ETSY?
ETSY is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.