Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) Stock Analysis
Score A+Compounder · Grade A · Bearish
$215.17
$414.45
+92.6%
10/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 9.1:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $414.45 (+92.6%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$430.34
FCF DCF Model
$430.34
EV/EBITDA
$430.34
Blended Fair Value
$414.45
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
95/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
77.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
22.3%
D/E Ratio
5.2x
Current Ratio
0.7x
Interest Coverage
7x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 5.2x (0/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.73 (5/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$260.00
+20.8% Upside
34 analysts
Range: $240.00 — $330.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($214.82) is 9.6% below SMA 200 ($237.64). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 68/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
9.11:1
Expected Return
+64.8%
Bull Upside
+91.1%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 9.11:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of EXPE?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is $414.45. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is EXPE a buy, sell, or hold?
EXPE currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 9.1:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is EXPE a high-quality stock?
Expedia Group, Inc. has a quality grade of A (95/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 77.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of 22.3%, and D/E ratio of 5.2x.
What type of stock is EXPE?
EXPE is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High revenue growth: 16.4%, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.8%, High FCF Yield: 12.4%, High debt: D/E 5.2x, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical
What do Wall Street analysts say about EXPE?
34 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $260.00 for EXPE, representing +20.8% upside. Targets range from $240.00 to $330.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in EXPE?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for EXPE is 9.11:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 9.11:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +64.8%, with bull case upside of +91.1% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for EXPE?
EXPE is in a bearish trend. Price ($214.82) is 9.6% below SMA 200 ($237.64). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 68/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.