Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Stock Analysis
Score BValue · Grade D · Bullish
$61.48
$62.06
+0.9%
5/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading near modeled fair value. No strong quantitative signal.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $62.06 (+0.9%). Slightly undervalued. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$47.30
FCF DCF Model
$92.22
EV/EBITDA
$20.15
Blended Fair Value
$62.06
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
59/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
14.7%
ROIC-WACC Spread
0.6%
D/E Ratio
0.9x
Current Ratio
0.6x
Interest Coverage
13x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 0.6pp (got 1/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.9x (6/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.59 (2/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 4.7pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$67.00
+9.0% Upside
25 analysts
Range: $61.00 — $73.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($61.33) is 5.5% above SMA 200 ($58.15). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 83/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.11:1
Expected Return
+6.5%
Bull Upside
+33.6%
Bear Downside
-16.0%
Good asymmetry: 2.11:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MDLZ?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is $62.06. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is MDLZ a buy, sell, or hold?
MDLZ currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 5/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is MDLZ a high-quality stock?
Mondelez International, Inc. has a quality grade of D (59/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 14.7%, ROIC-WACC spread of 0.6%, and D/E ratio of 0.9x.
What type of stock is MDLZ?
MDLZ is classified as a "value" in our framework. High P/E: 30.4x, High dividend: 3.2%, Mature growth: 9.2%, Moderate growth: 9.2%, Dividend paying: 3.2%
What do Wall Street analysts say about MDLZ?
25 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $67.00 for MDLZ, representing +9.0% upside. Targets range from $61.00 to $73.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in MDLZ?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MDLZ is 2.11:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.11:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +6.5%, with bull case upside of +33.6% and bear case downside of -16.0%.
What is the current trend for MDLZ?
MDLZ is in a bullish trend. Price ($61.33) is 5.5% above SMA 200 ($58.15). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 83/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.