Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Stock Analysis
Score BCompounder · Grade B · Bullish
$1,475.45
$789.70
-46.5%
9/10
B
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $789.70 (-46.5%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$1,227.40
FCF DCF Model
$308.70
EV/EBITDA
$405.66
Blended Fair Value
$789.70
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
87/120 points
Investable (Early-Profit)
Quality Flags
- Early-Profit screen: P/E > 100 + Gross Margin > 50% — adapted metrics used
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$1,700.00
+15.2% Upside
14 analysts
Range: $1,200.00 — $2,000.00
Rating: none
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($1482.55) is 39.3% above SMA 200 ($1064.46). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
5.23:1
Expected Return
+25.2%
Bull Upside
+52.3%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 5.23:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MPWR?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) is $789.70. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is MPWR a buy, sell, or hold?
MPWR currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is MPWR a high-quality stock?
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. has a quality grade of B (87/120 points), rated as Investable (Early-Profit). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of 0.0x.
What type of stock is MPWR?
MPWR is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 106.1x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.5%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.74, Moderate growth: 14.8%, Strong ROE: 19.1%
What do Wall Street analysts say about MPWR?
14 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $1,700.00 for MPWR, representing +15.2% upside. Targets range from $1,200.00 to $2,000.00. The consensus recommendation is "none". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in MPWR?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MPWR is 5.23:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 5.23:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +25.2%, with bull case upside of +52.3% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MPWR?
MPWR is in a bullish trend. Price ($1482.55) is 39.3% above SMA 200 ($1064.46). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.