M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Stock Analysis
Score AFinancial · Grade B · Unknown
$207.46
$220.94
+6.5%
10/10
B
Financial
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 7.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $220.94 (+6.5%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$261.19
FCF DCF Model
$178.16
Blended Fair Value
$220.94
Confidence
High
Methods
P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount
Quality Analysis
83/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
9.6%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-2.6%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
0.3x
Interest Coverage
1x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$235.00
+13.3% Upside
19 analysts
Range: $225.00 — $255.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Technical analysis unavailable
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
7.04:1
Expected Return
+28.9%
Bull Upside
+70.5%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 7.04:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MTB?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is $220.94. This is calculated by blending P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is MTB a buy, sell, or hold?
MTB currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 7.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is MTB a high-quality stock?
M&T Bank Corporation has a quality grade of B (83/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 9.6%, ROIC-WACC spread of -2.6%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is MTB?
MTB is classified as a "financial" in our framework. Financial sector override: Financial Services
What do Wall Street analysts say about MTB?
19 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $235.00 for MTB, representing +13.3% upside. Targets range from $225.00 to $255.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in MTB?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MTB is 7.04:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 7.04:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +28.9%, with bull case upside of +70.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MTB?
MTB is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.