$223.24
$189.75
-15.0%
6/10
C
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 1.6:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $189.75 (-15.0%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$290.21
FCF DCF Model
$265.50
EV/EBITDA
$111.52
Blended Fair Value
$189.75
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
70/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
13.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-1.7%
D/E Ratio
0.3x
Current Ratio
2.9x
Interest Coverage
45x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -1.7pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.3x (12/15 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 8.8pp (need <8.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$229.50
+2.8% Upside
13 analysts
Range: $180.00 — $245.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($223.56) is 35.4% above SMA 200 ($165.10). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 78/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.61:1
Expected Return
+7.2%
Bull Upside
+54.5%
Bear Downside
-33.8%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.61:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of NUE?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Nucor Corporation (NUE) is $189.75. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is NUE a buy, sell, or hold?
NUE currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 6/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 1.6:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is NUE a high-quality stock?
Nucor Corporation has a quality grade of C (70/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 13.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of -1.7%, and D/E ratio of 0.3x.
What type of stock is NUE?
NUE is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.0%, Mature growth: -3.8%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.88, Cyclical sector: Basic Materials
What do Wall Street analysts say about NUE?
13 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $229.50 for NUE, representing +2.8% upside. Targets range from $180.00 to $245.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in NUE?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for NUE is 1.61:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.61:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +7.2%, with bull case upside of +54.5% and bear case downside of -33.8%.
What is the current trend for NUE?
NUE is in a bullish trend. Price ($223.56) is 35.4% above SMA 200 ($165.10). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 78/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.