Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Stock Analysis
Score BGrowth · Grade A · Bearish
$134.25
$73.25
-45.4%
10/10
A
Growth
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
High-quality company trading above modeled fair value. Price above modeled entry range.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $73.25 (-45.4%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$115.24
FCF DCF Model
$41.50
EV/EBITDA
$18.96
Blended Fair Value
$73.25
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
115/120 points
Investable (Early-Profit)
Quality Flags
- Early-Profit screen: P/E > 100 + Gross Margin > 50% — adapted metrics used
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$190.00
+41.5% Upside
27 analysts
Range: $151.00 — $230.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($134.29) is 17.7% below SMA 200 ($163.14). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 46/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+110.9%
Bull Upside
+175.2%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PLTR?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is $73.25. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is PLTR a buy, sell, or hold?
PLTR currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is PLTR a high-quality stock?
Palantir Technologies Inc. has a quality grade of A (115/120 points), rated as Investable (Early-Profit). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of 0.0x.
What type of stock is PLTR?
PLTR is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 26.9%, High P/E: 150.8x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.52, Large cap: $308.2B
What do Wall Street analysts say about PLTR?
27 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $190.00 for PLTR, representing +41.5% upside. Targets range from $151.00 to $230.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PLTR?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PLTR is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +110.9%, with bull case upside of +175.2% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PLTR?
PLTR is in a bearish trend. Price ($134.29) is 17.7% below SMA 200 ($163.14). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 46/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.