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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Stock Analysis

Score D (Speculative)

Growth · Grade B · Unknown

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

$201.80

Fair Value

$180.88

-10.4%

Conviction

2/10

Quality

B

Classification

Growth

Investment Thesis

Pre-profit company with limited upside (-10%) and/or quality concerns (grade B).

Pre-profit company with limited upside (-10%) and/or quality concerns (grade B).

For New Investors

Do not initiate a position. Wait for significant price improvement or catalysts.

For Current Holders

Consider reducing position. Downside outweighs upside at current price.

Buy if

  • Price drops below $126.62 (30% discount to FV)
  • Revenue continues to grow >30% QoQ
  • Path to profitability becomes visible (improving margins)

Sell if

  • Revenue growth decelerates below 15%
  • Cash runway drops below 6 months
  • Management significantly dilutes shareholders
  • Competitive moat weakens

Valuation

Pre-profit blend: ev_revenue $170.70 (77%), analyst_target $177.50 (23%)

Blended Fair Value

$180.88

Methods

ev_revenue, analyst_target

Quality Analysis

B

70/120 points

PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade B (70/100)

Market Sentiment

Wall Street Consensus

$177.50

-12.0% Upside

5 analysts

Range: $165.00$190.00

Rating: Buy

Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.

Trend & Technical

Unknown

Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.

Risk & Reward

Asymmetry Ratio

0.68:1

Expected Return

-5.0%

Bull Upside

+34.4%

Bear Downside

-50.7%

Risk/reward ratio of 0.7:1 (UNFAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges.

Verdict: Unfavorable

Scenario Analysis

Bear

Base

Bull

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Technical Analysis

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the fair value of SPCX?

Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) is $180.88. This is calculated by blending ev_revenue, analyst_target and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is moderate.

Is SPCX a buy, sell, or hold?

SPCX currently has a SPECULATIVE_AVOID rating with a conviction score of 2/10. Pre-profit company with limited upside (-10%) and/or quality concerns (grade B). Do not initiate a position. Wait for significant price improvement or catalysts..

Is SPCX a high-quality stock?

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has a quality grade of B (70/120 points), rated as PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade B (70/100). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of 0.6x.

What type of stock is SPCX?

SPCX is classified as a "growth" in our framework. Alto crecimiento de ingresos: 19.2%, Dividendo bajo (reinvierte): 0.0%, Sector ciclico: Industrials, Cap. grande: $2638.7B, Beta similar al mercado: 1.00

What do Wall Street analysts say about SPCX?

5 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $177.50 for SPCX, representing -12.0% upside. Targets range from $165.00 to $190.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.

What are the risks of investing in SPCX?

The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for SPCX is 0.68:1, rated as Unfavorable. Risk/reward ratio of 0.7:1 (UNFAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges. The expected return is -5.0%, with bull case upside of +34.4% and bear case downside of -50.7%.

What is the current trend for SPCX?

SPCX is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.

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Last updated: June 17, 2026 · Framework version 3.7

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.