Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Stock Analysis
Score BCompounder · Grade A · Bullish
$157.39
$170.63
+8.4%
10/10
A
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading near modeled fair value. No strong quantitative signal.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $170.63 (+8.4%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$176.54
FCF DCF Model
$166.84
EV/EBITDA
$175.10
Blended Fair Value
$170.63
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
119/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
34.2%
ROIC-WACC Spread
19.1%
D/E Ratio
0.2x
Current Ratio
1.8x
Interest Coverage
99x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Leverage: D/E 0.2x (14/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$145.00
-7.9% Upside
13 analysts
Range: $95.00 — $175.00
Rating: Hold
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($157.24) is 12.5% above SMA 200 ($139.75). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.36:1
Expected Return
+9.3%
Bull Upside
+25.9%
Bear Downside
-11.0%
Good asymmetry: 2.36:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of EXPD?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) is $170.63. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is EXPD a buy, sell, or hold?
EXPD currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is EXPD a high-quality stock?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has a quality grade of A (119/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 34.2%, ROIC-WACC spread of 19.1%, and D/E ratio of 0.2x.
What type of stock is EXPD?
EXPD is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High P/E: 25.4x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.0%, Mature growth: -8.0%, High revenue volatility: 26.8% std dev, Cyclical sector: Industrials
What do Wall Street analysts say about EXPD?
13 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $145.00 for EXPD, representing -7.9% upside. Targets range from $95.00 to $175.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in EXPD?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for EXPD is 2.36:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.36:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +9.3%, with bull case upside of +25.9% and bear case downside of -11.0%.
What is the current trend for EXPD?
EXPD is in a bullish trend. Price ($157.24) is 12.5% above SMA 200 ($139.75). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.