Allegion plc (ALLE) Stock Analysis
Score ABlue Chip · Grade A · Bearish
$127.00
$176.99
+39.4%
10/10
A
Blue Chip
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 5.8:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $176.99 (+39.4%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$190.49
FCF DCF Model
$190.49
EV/EBITDA
$148.96
Blended Fair Value
$176.99
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
96/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
37.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
9.2%
D/E Ratio
1.1x
Current Ratio
1.8x
Interest Coverage
9x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 9.2pp (got 23/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.1x (8/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$172.50
+35.8% Upside
12 analysts
Range: $165.00 — $180.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($127.00) is 20.7% below SMA 200 ($160.23). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 41/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
5.85:1
Expected Return
+34.0%
Bull Upside
+58.5%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 5.85:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ALLE?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Allegion plc (ALLE) is $176.99. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is ALLE a buy, sell, or hold?
ALLE currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 5.8:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is ALLE a high-quality stock?
Allegion plc has a quality grade of A (96/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 37.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of 9.2%, and D/E ratio of 1.1x.
What type of stock is ALLE?
ALLE is classified as a "blue_chip" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.6%, Mature growth: 8.4%, Cyclical sector: Industrials, Moderate growth: 8.4%, Dividend paying: 1.6%
What do Wall Street analysts say about ALLE?
12 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $172.50 for ALLE, representing +35.8% upside. Targets range from $165.00 to $180.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in ALLE?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ALLE is 5.85:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 5.85:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +34.0%, with bull case upside of +58.5% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for ALLE?
ALLE is in a bearish trend. Price ($127.00) is 20.7% below SMA 200 ($160.23). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 41/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.