TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) Stock Analysis
Score BCompounder · Grade B · Bearish
$197.11
$256.24
+30.0%
10/10
B
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
No strong signal in either direction.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $256.24 (+30.0%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$256.24
FCF DCF Model
$256.24
EV/EBITDA
$256.24
Blended Fair Value
$256.24
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
89/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
19.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
5.8%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
1.6x
Interest Coverage
42x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 5.8pp (got 14/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (10/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$261.00
+32.4% Upside
19 analysts
Range: $226.00 — $302.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($197.12) is 10.6% below SMA 200 ($220.40). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 41/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
6.82:1
Expected Return
+32.2%
Bull Upside
+68.2%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 6.82:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
Ask AI about this stock
Chat with our AI analyst to ask questions about valuation, risks, or comparisons.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of TEL?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) is $256.24. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is TEL a buy, sell, or hold?
TEL currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is TEL a high-quality stock?
TE Connectivity Ltd. has a quality grade of B (89/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 19.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of 5.8%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is TEL?
TEL is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.4%, Mature growth: 4.5%, Dividend paying: 1.4%, Strong ROE: 22.7%, Market-like beta: 1.18
What do Wall Street analysts say about TEL?
19 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $261.00 for TEL, representing +32.4% upside. Targets range from $226.00 to $302.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in TEL?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for TEL is 6.82:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 6.82:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +32.2%, with bull case upside of +68.2% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for TEL?
TEL is in a bearish trend. Price ($197.12) is 10.6% below SMA 200 ($220.40). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 41/100.
Related Stock Analyses
Best Stocks to Buy
Get the complete analysis
Scenario targets, buy zones, action plan, executive summary, technical analysis, and AI chat. All free.
Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.