Trimble Inc. (TRMB) Stock Analysis
Score CGrowth · Grade B · Bearish
$54.88
$50.11
-8.7%
10/10
B
Growth
Investment Thesis
Grade A/B company in oversold territory. Strong margins and cash flow, but bearish trend requires patience. Buy in smaller amounts over time.
Grade A/B company in oversold territory. Price below SMA 200 but margins, ROIC, and cash flow remain strong. Buy in smaller amounts over time.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $50.11 (-8.7%). Approximately at fair value. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$71.34
FCF DCF Model
$10.01
EV/EBITDA
$71.34
Blended Fair Value
$50.11
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
80/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
13.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-3.1%
D/E Ratio
0.2x
Current Ratio
1.1x
Interest Coverage
8x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 13.5% (need >18%, got 12/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -3.1pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.2x (13/15 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 5.3pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$99.00
+80.4% Upside
12 analysts
Range: $80.00 — $101.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($54.83) is 26.3% below SMA 200 ($74.35). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 26/100 — CONTRARIAN OPPORTUNITY. Quality Grade B asset in oversold bearish territory (RSI < 30 + price below SMA200). Consider gradual accumulation (DCA).
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+55.8%
Bull Upside
+106.9%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of TRMB?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Trimble Inc. (TRMB) is $50.11. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is TRMB a buy, sell, or hold?
TRMB currently has a WATCHLIST rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Grade A/B company in oversold territory. Strong margins and cash flow, but bearish trend requires patience. Buy in smaller amounts over time. Price above modeled value range.
Is TRMB a high-quality stock?
Trimble Inc. has a quality grade of B (80/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 13.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of -3.1%, and D/E ratio of 0.2x.
What type of stock is TRMB?
TRMB is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High P/E: 28.7x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Mature growth: 0.7%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.45, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about TRMB?
12 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $99.00 for TRMB, representing +80.4% upside. Targets range from $80.00 to $101.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in TRMB?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for TRMB is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +55.8%, with bull case upside of +106.9% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for TRMB?
TRMB is in a bearish trend. Price ($54.83) is 26.3% below SMA 200 ($74.35). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 26/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.