Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Stock Analysis
Score BGrowth · Grade C · Bearish
$261.95
$259.03
-1.1%
7/10
C
Growth
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading near modeled fair value. No strong quantitative signal.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $259.03 (-1.1%). Approximately at fair value.
PEG-Based EPS
$340.54
FCF DCF Model
$189.08
EV/EBITDA
$340.54
Blended Fair Value
$259.03
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
65/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.1%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.7%
D/E Ratio
0.6x
Current Ratio
2.7x
Interest Coverage
3x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -0.7pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.6x (10/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$325.00
+24.1% Upside
21 analysts
Range: $298.00 — $360.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($261.93) is 10.2% below SMA 200 ($291.77). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 31/100 — FALLING KNIFE. Extreme oversold in bearish trend. High risk — wait for stabilization.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+49.3%
Bull Upside
+106.1%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of VMC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) is $259.03. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is VMC a buy, sell, or hold?
VMC currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 7/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is VMC a high-quality stock?
Vulcan Materials Company has a quality grade of C (65/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 12.1%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.7%, and D/E ratio of 0.6x.
What type of stock is VMC?
VMC is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High P/E: 31.0x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.8%, Mature growth: 3.0%, Cyclical sector: Basic Materials, Market-like beta: 1.09
What do Wall Street analysts say about VMC?
21 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $325.00 for VMC, representing +24.1% upside. Targets range from $298.00 to $360.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in VMC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for VMC is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +49.3%, with bull case upside of +106.1% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for VMC?
VMC is in a bearish trend. Price ($261.93) is 10.2% below SMA 200 ($291.77). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 31/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.