The Allstate Corporation (ALL) Stock Analysis
Score A+Financial · Grade A · Bullish
$226.07
$339.11
+50.0%
10/10
A
Financial
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $339.11 (+50.0%). Significantly undervalued. (Fair value adjusted: model estimate was outside reasonable range.)
PEG-Based EPS
$487.08
FCF DCF Model
$637.04
Blended Fair Value
$339.11
Confidence
Medium
Methods
P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount
Quality Analysis
110/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
18.1%
ROIC-WACC Spread
24.7%
D/E Ratio
0.2x
Current Ratio
0.4x
Interest Coverage
33x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Financial sector: alternative quality assessment applied
- Strong ROE: 18.1%
- Excellent efficiency
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$239.00
+5.7% Upside
22 analysts
Range: $215.00 — $281.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($226.07) is 10.0% above SMA 200 ($205.45). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 85/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+82.3%
Bull Upside
+173.2%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ALL?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is $339.11. This is calculated by blending P/B Relative, P/E Relative, Dividend Discount and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is ALL a buy, sell, or hold?
ALL currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is ALL a high-quality stock?
The Allstate Corporation has a quality grade of A (110/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 18.1%, ROIC-WACC spread of 24.7%, and D/E ratio of 0.2x.
What type of stock is ALL?
ALL is classified as a "financial" in our framework. Financial sector override: Financial Services
What do Wall Street analysts say about ALL?
22 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $239.00 for ALL, representing +5.7% upside. Targets range from $215.00 to $281.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in ALL?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ALL is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +82.3%, with bull case upside of +173.2% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for ALL?
ALL is in a bullish trend. Price ($226.07) is 10.0% above SMA 200 ($205.45). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 85/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.