CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Stock Analysis
Score DGrowth · Grade C · Bullish
$617.42
$245.99
-60.2%
3/10
C
Growth
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $245.99 (-60.2%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$344.26
FCF DCF Model
$281.52
EV/EBITDA
$31.79
Blended Fair Value
$245.99
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
73/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
-0.1%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-12.8%
D/E Ratio
0.2x
Current Ratio
1.8x
Interest Coverage
-6x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -0.1% (need >18%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -12.8pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.2x (13/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: -5.8x (0/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$550.00
-10.9% Upside
51 analysts
Range: $368.00 — $700.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($617.00) is 33.5% above SMA 200 ($462.14). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 53/100 — Neutral technical picture. Mixed signals across indicators.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+51.6%
Bull Upside
+110.7%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of CRWD?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) is $245.99. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is CRWD a buy, sell, or hold?
CRWD currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is CRWD a high-quality stock?
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. has a quality grade of C (73/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of -0.1%, ROIC-WACC spread of -12.8%, and D/E ratio of 0.2x.
What type of stock is CRWD?
CRWD is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 25.6%, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Large cap: $157.2B, Market-like beta: 1.06, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about CRWD?
51 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $550.00 for CRWD, representing -10.9% upside. Targets range from $368.00 to $700.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in CRWD?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for CRWD is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +51.6%, with bull case upside of +110.7% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for CRWD?
CRWD is in a bullish trend. Price ($617.00) is 33.5% above SMA 200 ($462.14). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 53/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.