Catalent, Inc. (CTLT) Stock Analysis
Score D (Speculative)Speculative · Grade F · Unknown
$63.48
$33.09
-47.9%
1/10
F
Speculative
Investment Thesis
Pre-profit company with limited upside (-48%) and/or quality concerns (grade F).
Pre-profit company with limited upside (-48%) and/or quality concerns (grade F).
For New Investors
Do not initiate a position. Wait for significant price improvement or catalysts.
For Current Holders
Consider reducing position. Downside outweighs upside at current price.
Buy if
- Price drops below $23.16 (30% discount to FV)
- Revenue continues to grow >30% QoQ
- Path to profitability becomes visible (improving margins)
Sell if
- Revenue growth decelerates below 15%
- Cash runway drops below 6 months
- Management significantly dilutes shareholders
- Competitive moat weakens
Valuation
Pre-profit blend: ev_revenue $38.43 (59%), analyst_target $74.25 (18%), rule_of_40 $4.51 (24%)
Blended Fair Value
$33.09
Methods
ev_revenue, analyst_target, rule_of_40
Quality Analysis
32/120 points
PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade F (32/100)
Quality Flags
- LOW_GROWTH_FOR_PRE_PROFIT
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$63.50
+0.0% Upside
Range: $41.00 — $132.00
Analyst consensus data not available.
Trend & Technical
Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
-0.39:1
Expected Return
-52.0%
Bull Upside
+-27.0%
Bear Downside
-68.7%
Risk/reward ratio of -0.4:1 (UNFAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges.
Verdict: Unfavorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of CTLT?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Catalent, Inc. (CTLT) is $33.09. This is calculated by blending ev_revenue, analyst_target, rule_of_40 and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is moderate.
Is CTLT a buy, sell, or hold?
CTLT currently has a SPECULATIVE_AVOID rating with a conviction score of 1/10. Pre-profit company with limited upside (-48%) and/or quality concerns (grade F). Do not initiate a position. Wait for significant price improvement or catalysts..
Is CTLT a high-quality stock?
Catalent, Inc. has a quality grade of F (32/120 points), rated as PRE-PROFIT QUALITY: Grade F (32/100). Key metrics include ROE of —%, ROIC-WACC spread of —%, and D/E ratio of 1.4x.
What type of stock is CTLT?
CTLT is classified as a "speculative" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Mature growth: 0.6%, Market-like beta: 1.16, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive, No category scored strongly — fallback to Speculative
What do Wall Street analysts say about CTLT?
Multiple Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $63.50 for CTLT, representing +0.0% upside. Targets range from $41.00 to $132.00. The consensus recommendation is "—". Analyst consensus data not available.
What are the risks of investing in CTLT?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for CTLT is -0.39:1, rated as Unfavorable. Risk/reward ratio of -0.4:1 (UNFAVORABLE). Pre-profit valuations carry wider ranges. The expected return is -52.0%, with bull case upside of +-27.0% and bear case downside of -68.7%.
What is the current trend for CTLT?
CTLT is in a unknown trend. Insufficient data to calculate SMA 200. The technical score is —/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.