$68.49
$92.95
+35.7%
10/10
C
Value
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $92.95 (+35.7%). Significantly undervalued. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$27.24
FCF DCF Model
$102.73
EV/EBITDA
$96.36
Blended Fair Value
$92.95
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
63/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
29.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
1.6%
D/E Ratio
1.0x
Current Ratio
0.4x
Interest Coverage
9x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 1.6pp (got 4/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.0x (9/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.40 (0/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 8.1pp (need <5.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$85.00
+24.1% Upside
25 analysts
Range: $77.00 — $95.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($68.49) is 6.9% above SMA 200 ($64.05). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+108.8%
Bull Upside
+200.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of DAL?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is $92.95. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is DAL a buy, sell, or hold?
DAL currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is DAL a high-quality stock?
Delta Air Lines, Inc. has a quality grade of C (63/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 29.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of 1.6%, and D/E ratio of 1.0x.
What type of stock is DAL?
DAL is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.1%, Low P/E: 10.0x, High FCF Yield: 8.5%, Mature growth: 7.2%, High revenue volatility: 31.0% std dev
What do Wall Street analysts say about DAL?
25 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $85.00 for DAL, representing +24.1% upside. Targets range from $77.00 to $95.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is slightly more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in DAL?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for DAL is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +108.8%, with bull case upside of +200.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for DAL?
DAL is in a bullish trend. Price ($68.49) is 6.9% above SMA 200 ($64.05). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.