Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade D · Bullish
$124.09
$119.34
-3.8%
3/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $119.34 (-3.8%). Approximately at fair value.
PEG-Based EPS
$90.69
FCF DCF Model
$158.76
EV/EBITDA
$78.55
Blended Fair Value
$119.34
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
41/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
9.1%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.7%
D/E Ratio
1.8x
Current Ratio
0.6x
Interest Coverage
2x
FCF Positive Years
1/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -0.7pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 1/3 years (7/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.8x (6/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.4x (7/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.55 (1/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 7.5pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$138.00
+11.2% Upside
18 analysts
Range: $126.00 — $141.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($123.94) is 1.7% above SMA 200 ($121.91). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
5.46:1
Expected Return
+21.9%
Bull Upside
+54.6%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: 5.46:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
See exact entry zones, stop-loss levels, and a personalized action plan.
AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of DUK?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) is $119.34. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is DUK a buy, sell, or hold?
DUK currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is DUK a high-quality stock?
Duke Energy Corporation has a quality grade of D (41/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 9.1%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.7%, and D/E ratio of 1.8x.
What type of stock is DUK?
DUK is classified as a "value" in our framework. High dividend: 3.4%, Mature growth: 3.6%, High debt: D/E 1.8x, Dividend paying: 3.4%
What do Wall Street analysts say about DUK?
18 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $138.00 for DUK, representing +11.2% upside. Targets range from $126.00 to $141.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in DUK?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for DUK is 5.46:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 5.46:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +21.9%, with bull case upside of +54.6% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for DUK?
DUK is in a bullish trend. Price ($123.94) is 1.7% above SMA 200 ($121.91). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.