Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis
Score DCyclical · Grade D · Bearish
$135.79
$99.61
-26.6%
3/10
D
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $99.61 (-26.6%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$203.68
FCF DCF Model
$11.64
EV/EBITDA
$63.41
Blended Fair Value
$99.61
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
47/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
31.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-5.2%
D/E Ratio
4.0x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
1x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -5.2pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 4.0x (0/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 1.1x (1/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.78 (6/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 15.2pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$224.50
+65.3% Upside
17 analysts
Range: $203.00 — $293.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($135.79) is 22.2% below SMA 200 ($174.62). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 41/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.57:1
Expected Return
+5.3%
Bull Upside
+62.2%
Bear Downside
-39.6%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.57:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of VST?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Vistra Corp. (VST) is $99.61. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is VST a buy, sell, or hold?
VST currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is VST a high-quality stock?
Vistra Corp. has a quality grade of D (47/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 31.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of -5.2%, and D/E ratio of 4.0x.
What type of stock is VST?
VST is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.7%, Mature growth: 5.8%, High debt: D/E 4.0x, High revenue volatility: 24.5% std dev, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.45
What do Wall Street analysts say about VST?
17 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $224.50 for VST, representing +65.3% upside. Targets range from $203.00 to $293.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in VST?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for VST is 1.57:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.57:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +5.3%, with bull case upside of +62.2% and bear case downside of -39.6%.
What is the current trend for VST?
VST is in a bearish trend. Price ($135.79) is 22.2% below SMA 200 ($174.62). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 41/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.