HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Analysis
Score ACompounder · Grade B · Bearish
$408.79
$788.57
+92.9%
10/10
B
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $788.57 (+92.9%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$817.58
FCF DCF Model
$817.58
EV/EBITDA
$817.58
Blended Fair Value
$788.57
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
89/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
16.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
6.2%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
5x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 6.2pp (got 16/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (11/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.83 (7/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$530.00
+29.7% Upside
21 analysts
Range: $436.00 — $635.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($407.93) is 11.5% below SMA 200 ($460.91). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 77/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+99.0%
Bull Upside
+191.3%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of HCA?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is $788.57. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is HCA a buy, sell, or hold?
HCA currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is HCA a high-quality stock?
HCA Healthcare, Inc. has a quality grade of B (89/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 16.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of 6.2%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is HCA?
HCA is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. High revenue growth: 16.5%, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.7%, Low P/E: 14.1x, High FCF Yield: 8.5%, Market-like beta: 1.19
What do Wall Street analysts say about HCA?
21 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $530.00 for HCA, representing +29.7% upside. Targets range from $436.00 to $635.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in HCA?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for HCA is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +99.0%, with bull case upside of +191.3% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for HCA?
HCA is in a bearish trend. Price ($407.93) is 11.5% below SMA 200 ($460.91). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 77/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.