Intel Corporation (INTC) Stock Analysis
Score DCompounder · Grade F · Bullish
$61.72
$33.54
-45.7%
1/10
F
Compounder
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $33.54 (-45.7%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$0.63
FCF DCF Model
$20.05
EV/EBITDA
$51.60
Blended Fair Value
$33.54
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
26/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
-5.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-8.6%
D/E Ratio
0.4x
Current Ratio
2.0x
Interest Coverage
-0x
FCF Positive Years
0/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: -5.8% (need >18%, got 0/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -8.6pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 0/3 years (0/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.4x (11/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: -0.0x (0/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 9.0pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$48.00
-22.2% Upside
41 analysts
Range: $20.00 — $66.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($61.72) is 71.5% above SMA 200 ($35.99). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 75/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+83.2%
Bull Upside
+179.1%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of INTC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Intel Corporation (INTC) is $33.54. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is INTC a buy, sell, or hold?
INTC currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 1/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is INTC a high-quality stock?
Intel Corporation has a quality grade of F (26/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of -5.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of -8.6%, and D/E ratio of 0.4x.
What type of stock is INTC?
INTC is classified as a "compounder" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Mature growth: -10.8%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.35, Large cap: $308.3B, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about INTC?
41 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $48.00 for INTC, representing -22.2% upside. Targets range from $20.00 to $66.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in INTC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for INTC is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +83.2%, with bull case upside of +179.1% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for INTC?
INTC is in a bullish trend. Price ($61.72) is 71.5% above SMA 200 ($35.99). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 75/100.
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Last updated: April 10, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.