$24.57
$36.86
+50.0%
10/10
C
Value
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 7.7:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $36.86 (+50.0%). Significantly undervalued. (Fair value adjusted: model estimate was outside reasonable range.)
PEG-Based EPS
$36.86
FCF DCF Model
$36.86
EV/EBITDA
$36.86
Blended Fair Value
$36.86
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
68/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
12.0%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.7%
D/E Ratio
0.8x
Current Ratio
1.7x
Interest Coverage
5x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 12.0% (need >15%, got 14/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -0.7pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.8x (9/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$36.50
+48.6% Upside
8 analysts
Range: $34.00 — $39.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($24.50) is 19.4% below SMA 200 ($30.41). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 26/100 — FALLING KNIFE. Extreme oversold in bearish trend. High risk — wait for stabilization.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
7.68:1
Expected Return
+22.2%
Bull Upside
+44.4%
Bear Downside
-5.8%
Excellent asymmetry: 7.68:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of LKQ?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of LKQ Corporation (LKQ) is $36.86. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is LKQ a buy, sell, or hold?
LKQ currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 7.7:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is LKQ a high-quality stock?
LKQ Corporation has a quality grade of C (68/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 12.0%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.7%, and D/E ratio of 0.8x.
What type of stock is LKQ?
LKQ is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low P/E: 12.2x, High FCF Yield: 13.5%, High dividend: 4.9%, Mature growth: 5.6%, Cyclical sector: Consumer Cyclical
What do Wall Street analysts say about LKQ?
8 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $36.50 for LKQ, representing +48.6% upside. Targets range from $34.00 to $39.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in LKQ?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for LKQ is 7.68:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: 7.68:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +22.2%, with bull case upside of +44.4% and bear case downside of -5.8%.
What is the current trend for LKQ?
LKQ is in a bearish trend. Price ($24.50) is 19.4% below SMA 200 ($30.41). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 26/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.