Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Analysis
Score ACyclical · Grade B · Bullish
$260.58
$301.37
+15.7%
10/10
B
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $301.37 (+15.7%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$390.87
FCF DCF Model
$390.87
EV/EBITDA
$202.44
Blended Fair Value
$301.37
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
79/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
27.5%
ROIC-WACC Spread
3.6%
D/E Ratio
2.0x
Current Ratio
1.3x
Interest Coverage
4x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 3.6pp (got 9/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 2.0x (5/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$226.50
-13.1% Upside
18 analysts
Range: $174.00 — $285.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($261.69) is 32.9% above SMA 200 ($196.97). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+74.8%
Bull Upside
+183.2%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of MPC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is $301.37. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is MPC a buy, sell, or hold?
MPC currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is MPC a high-quality stock?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation has a quality grade of B (79/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 27.5%, ROIC-WACC spread of 3.6%, and D/E ratio of 2.0x.
What type of stock is MPC?
MPC is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.5%, Mature growth: 7.9%, High debt: D/E 2.0x, High revenue volatility: 29.0% std dev, Cyclical sector: Energy
What do Wall Street analysts say about MPC?
18 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $226.50 for MPC, representing -13.1% upside. Targets range from $174.00 to $285.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in MPC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for MPC is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +74.8%, with bull case upside of +183.2% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for MPC?
MPC is in a bullish trend. Price ($261.69) is 32.9% above SMA 200 ($196.97). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.