ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) Stock Analysis
Score AGrowth · Grade C · Bullish
$107.94
$95.97
-11.1%
10/10
C
Growth
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $95.97 (-11.1%). Approximately at fair value.
PEG-Based EPS
$140.32
FCF DCF Model
$140.32
EV/EBITDA
$51.62
Blended Fair Value
$95.97
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
71/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
15.8%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-4.3%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
4.5x
Interest Coverage
11x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 15.8% (need >18%, got 16/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -4.3pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (10/15 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 6.7pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$97.50
-9.7% Upside
29 analysts
Range: $62.00 — $120.00
Rating: Buy
Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
Trend & Technical
Price ($107.19) is 75.4% above SMA 200 ($61.10). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 78/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+54.2%
Bull Upside
+113.9%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ON?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) is $95.97. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is ON a buy, sell, or hold?
ON currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is ON a high-quality stock?
ON Semiconductor Corporation has a quality grade of C (71/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 15.8%, ROIC-WACC spread of -4.3%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is ON?
ON is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High P/E: 78.8x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Mature growth: -8.8%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.94, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about ON?
29 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $97.50 for ON, representing -9.7% upside. Targets range from $62.00 to $120.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model aligns with Wall Street consensus.
What are the risks of investing in ON?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ON is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +54.2%, with bull case upside of +113.9% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for ON?
ON is in a bullish trend. Price ($107.19) is 75.4% above SMA 200 ($61.10). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 78/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.