PG&E Corporation (PCG) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade F · Bullish
$16.27
$18.98
+16.7%
0/10
F
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $18.98 (+16.7%). Slightly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$21.14
FCF DCF Model
$21.14
EV/EBITDA
$15.38
Blended Fair Value
$18.98
Confidence
High
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
36/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
8.6%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-1.3%
D/E Ratio
1.9x
Current Ratio
1.0x
Interest Coverage
2x
FCF Positive Years
0/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 8.5% (need >9%, got 18/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -1.3pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 0/3 years (0/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.9x (6/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 1.6x (3/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.97 (9/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 10.8pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$23.00
+41.4% Upside
16 analysts
Range: $21.00 — $25.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($16.28) is 0.5% above SMA 200 ($16.21). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 85/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.01:1
Expected Return
-5.1%
Bull Upside
+26.1%
Bear Downside
-25.7%
Poor asymmetry: 1.01:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward.
Verdict: Unfavorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PCG?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of PG&E Corporation (PCG) is $18.98. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is high.
Is PCG a buy, sell, or hold?
PCG currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 0/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is PCG a high-quality stock?
PG&E Corporation has a quality grade of F (36/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 8.6%, ROIC-WACC spread of -1.3%, and D/E ratio of 1.9x.
What type of stock is PCG?
PCG is classified as a "value" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.9%, Low P/E: 12.6x, Mature growth: 1.3%, High debt: D/E 1.9x, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about PCG?
16 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $23.00 for PCG, representing +41.4% upside. Targets range from $21.00 to $25.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PCG?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PCG is 1.01:1, rated as Unfavorable. Poor asymmetry: 1.01:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward. The expected return is -5.1%, with bull case upside of +26.1% and bear case downside of -25.7%.
What is the current trend for PCG?
PCG is in a bullish trend. Price ($16.28) is 0.5% above SMA 200 ($16.21). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 85/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.