Insulet Corporation (PODD) Stock Analysis
Score A+Growth · Grade A · Bearish
$153.56
$311.31
+102.7%
10/10
A
Growth
Investment Thesis
High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $311.31 (+102.7%). Significantly undervalued.
PEG-Based EPS
$449.56
FCF DCF Model
$334.38
EV/EBITDA
$248.64
Blended Fair Value
$311.31
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple
Quality Analysis
114/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
26.3%
ROIC-WACC Spread
7.6%
D/E Ratio
0.7x
Current Ratio
2.8x
Interest Coverage
6x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 7.6pp (got 19/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.7x (10/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$237.00
+54.3% Upside
24 analysts
Range: $198.00 — $280.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($153.55) is 44.0% below SMA 200 ($274.12). Bearish trend. Caution on entry.
Tech Score 41/100 — Weak technicals. Bearish bias in trend or momentum.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+95.9%
Bull Upside
+172.1%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of PODD?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Insulet Corporation (PODD) is $311.31. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA, Revenue Multiple and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is PODD a buy, sell, or hold?
PODD currently has a STRONG_BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. High quantitative score: Solid company with strong risk/reward at 10.0:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is PODD a high-quality stock?
Insulet Corporation has a quality grade of A (114/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 26.3%, ROIC-WACC spread of 7.6%, and D/E ratio of 0.7x.
What type of stock is PODD?
PODD is classified as a "growth" in our framework. High revenue growth: 26.9%, High P/E: 35.9x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.0%, Strong ROE: 21.4%, Market-like beta: 1.20
What do Wall Street analysts say about PODD?
24 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $237.00 for PODD, representing +54.3% upside. Targets range from $198.00 to $280.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in PODD?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for PODD is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +95.9%, with bull case upside of +172.1% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for PODD?
PODD is in a bearish trend. Price ($153.55) is 44.0% below SMA 200 ($274.12). Bearish trend. Caution on entry. The technical score is 41/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.