Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Analysis
Score DCyclical · Grade B · Bullish
$224.06
$72.64
-67.6%
3/10
B
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $72.64 (-67.6%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$184.52
FCF DCF Model
$45.71
EV/EBITDA
$85.69
Blended Fair Value
$72.64
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
75/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
19.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
0.5%
D/E Ratio
0.5x
Current Ratio
3.1x
Interest Coverage
21x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 0.5pp (got 1/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.5x (11/15 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$190.00
-15.2% Upside
11 analysts
Range: $190.00 — $207.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($223.94) is 32.5% above SMA 200 ($169.07). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 78/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
1.56:1
Expected Return
+6.3%
Bull Upside
+46.0%
Bear Downside
-29.5%
Moderate asymmetry: 1.56:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward.
Verdict: Neutral
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of STLD?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is $72.64. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is STLD a buy, sell, or hold?
STLD currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 3/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is STLD a high-quality stock?
Steel Dynamics, Inc. has a quality grade of B (75/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 19.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of 0.5%, and D/E ratio of 0.5x.
What type of stock is STLD?
STLD is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. Low dividend (reinvesting): 0.9%, Mature growth: 0.4%, High beta (cyclical behavior): 1.49, Cyclical sector: Basic Materials, Strong ROE: 15.3%
What do Wall Street analysts say about STLD?
11 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $190.00 for STLD, representing -15.2% upside. Targets range from $190.00 to $207.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in STLD?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for STLD is 1.56:1, rated as Neutral. Moderate asymmetry: 1.56:1 ratio. Balanced risk/reward. The expected return is +6.3%, with bull case upside of +46.0% and bear case downside of -29.5%.
What is the current trend for STLD?
STLD is in a bullish trend. Price ($223.94) is 32.5% above SMA 200 ($169.07). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 78/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.