Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) Stock Analysis
Score BCyclical · Grade C · Bullish
$277.04
$169.63
-38.8%
9/10
C
Cyclical
Investment Thesis
Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions.
Trading above fair value.
For New Investors
Price above modeled value range
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $169.63 (-38.8%). Overvalued vs fundamentals. (Methods diverge significantly. Conservative estimate shown.)
PEG-Based EPS
$333.45
FCF DCF Model
$244.68
EV/EBITDA
$85.51
Blended Fair Value
$169.63
Confidence
Low
Methods
PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
74/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
46.4%
ROIC-WACC Spread
6.3%
D/E Ratio
5.7x
Current Ratio
0.7x
Interest Coverage
4x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: 6.3pp (got 16/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 5.7x (0/15 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.67 (3/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$268.00
-3.3% Upside
20 analysts
Range: $228.00 — $331.00
Rating: Strong Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($277.13) is 42.4% above SMA 200 ($194.59). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 80/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
10.00:1
Expected Return
+140.6%
Bull Upside
+200.0%
Bear Downside
-10.0%
Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside.
Verdict: Very Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of TRGP?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) is $169.63. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS (conservative), FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is low.
Is TRGP a buy, sell, or hold?
TRGP currently has a HOLD rating with a conviction score of 9/10. Price is above modeled value range. Quality supports holding but not attractive for new positions. Price above modeled value range.
Is TRGP a high-quality stock?
Targa Resources Corp. has a quality grade of C (74/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 46.4%, ROIC-WACC spread of 6.3%, and D/E ratio of 5.7x.
What type of stock is TRGP?
TRGP is classified as a "cyclical" in our framework. High P/E: 28.3x, Low dividend (reinvesting): 1.5%, Mature growth: -5.8%, High debt: D/E 5.7x, High revenue volatility: 21.7% std dev
What do Wall Street analysts say about TRGP?
20 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $268.00 for TRGP, representing -3.3% upside. Targets range from $228.00 to $331.00. The consensus recommendation is "Strong Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in TRGP?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for TRGP is 10.00:1, rated as Very Favorable. Excellent asymmetry: >3:1 ratio. Upside significantly outweighs downside. The expected return is +140.6%, with bull case upside of +200.0% and bear case downside of -10.0%.
What is the current trend for TRGP?
TRGP is in a bullish trend. Price ($277.13) is 42.4% above SMA 200 ($194.59). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 80/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.