WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC) Stock Analysis
Score DValue · Grade D · Bullish
$110.91
$90.08
-18.8%
0/10
D
Value
Investment Thesis
Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: weak
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: low
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $90.08 (-18.8%). Overvalued vs fundamentals.
PEG-Based EPS
$83.78
FCF DCF Model
$131.00
EV/EBITDA
$49.45
Blended Fair Value
$90.08
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
48/120 points
Low Quality
ROE (3Y Avg)
11.7%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-0.5%
D/E Ratio
1.6x
Current Ratio
0.5x
Interest Coverage
3x
FCF Positive Years
2/3
Quality Flags
- ROIC spread: -0.5pp (got 0/25 pts)
- FCF positive only 2/3 years (13/20 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 1.6x (7/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.7x (8/10 pts)
- Liquidity: Current Ratio 0.47 (0/10 pts)
- Volatile gross margins: std dev 6.5pp (need <3.0pp)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$121.00
+9.1% Upside
18 analysts
Range: $116.00 — $135.00
Rating: Buy
Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($110.93) is 1.1% above SMA 200 ($109.72). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 73/100 — Strong technical setup. Trend, momentum, and positioning aligned bullish.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
0.74:1
Expected Return
-5.2%
Bull Upside
+19.8%
Bear Downside
-26.8%
Poor asymmetry: 0.74:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward.
Verdict: Unfavorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
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Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of WEC?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of WEC Energy Group, Inc. (WEC) is $90.08. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is WEC a buy, sell, or hold?
WEC currently has a AVOID rating with a conviction score of 0/10. Low quantitative score: Low quality, stretched valuation, or poor risk/reward. Quantitative score: weak.
Is WEC a high-quality stock?
WEC Energy Group, Inc. has a quality grade of D (48/120 points), rated as Low Quality. Key metrics include ROE of 11.7%, ROIC-WACC spread of -0.5%, and D/E ratio of 1.6x.
What type of stock is WEC?
WEC is classified as a "value" in our framework. High dividend: 3.3%, Mature growth: -0.3%, High debt: D/E 1.6x, Dividend paying: 3.3%
What do Wall Street analysts say about WEC?
18 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $121.00 for WEC, representing +9.1% upside. Targets range from $116.00 to $135.00. The consensus recommendation is "Buy". Our model is more cautious than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in WEC?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for WEC is 0.74:1, rated as Unfavorable. Poor asymmetry: 0.74:1 ratio. Risk exceeds potential reward. The expected return is -5.2%, with bull case upside of +19.8% and bear case downside of -26.8%.
What is the current trend for WEC?
WEC is in a bullish trend. Price ($110.93) is 1.1% above SMA 200 ($109.72). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 73/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.