Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Stock Analysis
Score AValue · Grade C · Bullish
$79.34
$77.71
-2.1%
10/10
C
Value
Investment Thesis
Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 2.1:1.
For New Investors
Quantitative score: high
For Current Holders
Quantitative score: neutral
Buy if
- Price drops 15-20% (improves asymmetry)
- Bull scenario catalysts materialize
- Market-wide correction creates opportunity
Sell if
- Bear scenario triggers occur
- Quality metrics deteriorate (ROIC declining)
- Better alternatives emerge
Valuation
Fair Value estimate: $77.71 (-2.1%). Approximately at fair value.
PEG-Based EPS
$40.52
FCF DCF Model
$103.14
EV/EBITDA
$43.66
Blended Fair Value
$77.71
Confidence
Medium
Methods
PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA
Quality Analysis
71/120 points
Investable
ROE (3Y Avg)
9.1%
ROIC-WACC Spread
-4.9%
D/E Ratio
0.4x
Current Ratio
11.2x
Interest Coverage
2x
FCF Positive Years
3/3
Quality Flags
- Low ROE: 9.1% (need >12%, got 13/20 pts)
- ROIC spread: -4.9pp (got 0/25 pts)
- Leverage: D/E 0.4x (11/15 pts)
- Interest coverage: 2.3x (7/10 pts)
Market Sentiment
Wall Street Consensus
$74.00
-6.7% Upside
10 analysts
Range: $58.00 — $90.00
Rating: Hold
Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
Trend & Technical
Price ($79.34) is 23.6% above SMA 200 ($64.19). Bullish trend confirmed.
Tech Score 90/100 — MOMENTUM ALIGNMENT. Healthy uptrend confirmed by RSI and MACD. Technical tailwind.
Risk & Reward
Asymmetry Ratio
2.12:1
Expected Return
+7.9%
Bull Upside
+30.9%
Bear Downside
-14.6%
Good asymmetry: 2.12:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk.
Verdict: Favorable
Scenario Analysis
Bear
Base
Bull
Buy Zone & Action Plan
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AI Executive Summary
Get a detailed AI-written breakdown of the investment thesis, risks, and catalysts.
Technical Analysis
RSI, MACD, moving averages, trend signals, and momentum indicators.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fair value of ADM?
Based on our multi-method conviction analysis, the estimated fair value of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is $77.71. This is calculated by blending PEG-Based EPS, FCF 2-Stage DCF, EV/EBITDA and applying a quality premium of 0% based on the company's fundamentals. The confidence level of this estimate is medium.
Is ADM a buy, sell, or hold?
ADM currently has a BUY rating with a conviction score of 10/10. Good opportunity: Solid company with good risk/reward at 2.1:1. Quantitative score: high.
Is ADM a high-quality stock?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company has a quality grade of C (71/120 points), rated as Investable. Key metrics include ROE of 9.1%, ROIC-WACC spread of -4.9%, and D/E ratio of 0.4x.
What type of stock is ADM?
ADM is classified as a "value" in our framework. High P/E: 35.4x, High FCF Yield: 11.0%, Mature growth: -2.8%, Dividend paying: 2.6%, Consistent FCF: 3/3 years positive
What do Wall Street analysts say about ADM?
10 Wall Street analysts have a consensus price target of $74.00 for ADM, representing -6.7% upside. Targets range from $58.00 to $90.00. The consensus recommendation is "Hold". Our model is slightly more bullish than Wall Street.
What are the risks of investing in ADM?
The risk/reward asymmetry ratio for ADM is 2.12:1, rated as Favorable. Good asymmetry: 2.12:1 ratio. Upside justifies risk. The expected return is +7.9%, with bull case upside of +30.9% and bear case downside of -14.6%.
What is the current trend for ADM?
ADM is in a bullish trend. Price ($79.34) is 23.6% above SMA 200 ($64.19). Bullish trend confirmed. The technical score is 90/100.
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Last updated: May 19, 2026 · Framework version 3.7
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.